Russia Builds Digital Twin of Permafrost to Safeguard Arctic Infrastructure

A new system will predict changes in frozen ground decades in advance, helping protect northern infrastructure from thaw-related risks.

Russia is developing a digital model of permafrost that will forecast how the frozen ground evolves over time—and help minimize risks to Arctic infrastructure. The initiative was announced by Gazpromneft-Zapolyarye, which operates in the Yamal region.

The new system relies on satellite monitoring, geological surveys, and mathematical modeling to project temperature shifts in the soil and assess geocryological threats.

Permafrost covers about 65% of Russian territory, and its stability is critical for the safety of buildings, roads, and industrial facilities. The project aims to support safe, eco-friendly development in the Arctic by adapting infrastructure to permafrost dynamics and improving resource extraction planning.

The first models will cover western Yamal, followed by expansion to other northern regions. The data will also be integrated into Russia’s national monitoring system run by Roshydromet.

According to Yuri Ugryumov, deputy director of the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, the project marks a major step for both industry and science: “It will allow us to anticipate risks and make smarter decisions about Arctic development.”

Ultimately, the system will improve infrastructure reliability as the permafrost thaws and accelerate new project launches in the polar region.