Gazprom Neft Is to Forecast Permafrost Changes in Russia Through 2050
The digital model offers a planning horizon of nearly 25 years
Gazprom Neft has developed a model to forecast permafrost changes on the Yamal Peninsula through 2050. The system is designed to improve predictions of soil behavior and support industrial and construction projects in the Far North by accounting for shifting ground conditions.
According to CEO Alexander Dyukov, the permafrost zone covers more than 60% of Russia’s territory. Monitoring its condition is a national priority, as the reliability and durability of Arctic infrastructure depend directly on maintaining subzero temperatures in perennially frozen ground layers near the Earth’s surface.
Mapping Risks and Subsurface Processes
The model integrates data from 3,500 engineering and geological boreholes, satellite imagery, and field and laboratory studies. It maps the structure, temperature, and physical and thermal properties of soils and rock formations.
The geoinformation model covers permafrost conditions across more than 15,000 square kilometers in the western Yamal Peninsula. The company plans to extend it to regions in Eastern and Western Siberia.
Earlier, researchers in Yamal launched an interactive permafrost map that compiles data on the distribution and depth of frozen ground. The region became the first in Russia to join the national background monitoring system for permafrost conditions.
