Cards Fade as Russia’s Payments Go Digital
T-Bank predicts that the share of bank card payments in Russia could fall to 20% by 2030, as alternative payment methods take over.
According to a forecast presented by T-Bank at the Tolk-2026 forum, bank cards are set to lose ground over the next four years, with up to 80% of payment turnover shifting to alternative instruments such as the SBP (Fast Payments System), QR codes, and biometrics. The projection reflects changes in the structure of retail payments.
More Ways to Pay
Data from the Bank of Russia shows that in Q4 2025, non-card payments accounted for more than 14% of cashless transactions, up by 4.5 percentage points. Over the past decade, the overall share of cashless payments has grown from 30% to 88%. Consumers can now choose from an expanding range of payment methods, as banks and retailers invest in more convenient tools to meet demand.
This is driving demand for a full-stack payments ecosystem, from instant payment platforms and universal QR solutions to biometric acquiring, fraud prevention systems, and integration layers connecting retail and public services. Russian developers are building new tools that speed up transactions and streamline the customer journey. Consumers benefit from competitive payment services, while the state strengthens its technological sovereignty.
Why the Forecast Holds
The SBP is evolving from a money transfer service into a universal payment tool. In 2025, it processed ₽103 trillion ($1.1 trillion) across 18.3 billion transactions, with an average of 15 million payments for goods and services per day.
From September 1, 2026, Russia will introduce a universal QR code based on the NSPK (National Payment Card System). Once scanned, users will simply choose their preferred payment method. This is expected to further accelerate the shift away from cards, making T-Bank’s forecast appear increasingly realistic.
Payments Landscape: National Solutions
Before 2022, about three-quarters of bank cards in Russia, roughly 225 million, were issued under international systems such as Visa and Mastercard. By early 2026, most cards in circulation, 476.5 million, were issued under the national Mir payment system.
Over the past five years, the SBP has become a mainstream service. Every second citizen uses it for transfers, and seven in ten use it to pay for goods. In 2024, biometric acquiring began scaling, enabling “face-based” payments through EBS (Unified Biometric System) and NSPK. In 2025, legislation formalized the rollout of universal QR payments and defined stages for integrating the digital ruble. The Central Bank notes that alternative payment methods have reached statistically significant adoption.
Strategic Outlook to 2030
The once-dominant role of bank cards no longer looks as stable as it did five years ago. By 2030, cards are likely to give way to QR payments, the SBP, biometrics, and the digital ruble.
At the same time, long-term demand is expected for infrastructure fintech, transaction security based on cryptography, behavioral fraud detection algorithms, and low-code integration with retail ERP systems. Russia’s IT sector is positioned to respond with new fintech solutions. The country is building a diversified national payments architecture designed to withstand external shocks and meet the needs of both businesses and consumers.
