Perm Scientists Develop Method to Predict How Aggressive Cancer Tumors Are

The most dangerous feature of cancer is metastasis – the process in which cells detach from a tumor and form new lesions in other organs. In about 90% of cases, this process is the cause of death.

Predicting metastasis is difficult. Modern diagnostic methods often detect the disease at late stages, and traditional tissue analysis cannot accurately assess how aggressive a tumor is or how ready its cells are to spread.

Three factors influence a tumor’s ability to metastasize: cell deformation, restructuring of the cytoskeleton and energy expenditure. These parameters were previously studied separately. Scientists from Perm Polytechnic have now combined them into a single mathematical model. The approach allows doctors to assess the aggressiveness of affected tissue and its potential to metastasize, the university’s press service told IT-Russia.

Squeezing Through Healthy “Elasticity”

To penetrate other organs, cancer cells must squeeze through narrow intercellular spaces and vessel walls. This path involves enormous mechanical stress caused by resistance from surrounding tissues and blood flow. All cells experience pressure inside the body, but they respond differently.

A healthy cell is elastic: compress it and release it, and it quickly returns to its original shape. A cancer cell is softer. Its goal is not to maintain shape but to adapt to external stress. Its cytoskeleton – the cell’s internal framework – does not simply compress. It breaks old connections and forms new ones. This internal chaos requires large amounts of energy, but it also enables the cell to migrate. By spending significant energy, the cancer cell becomes softer. The more efficiently and consistently it can do this, the higher its chance of breaking away from the tumor and forming metastases.

Traditional histological analysis – examining thin tissue sections under a microscope – can determine the tumor type and stage but cannot reveal its “character”: whether it is aggressive or prone to recurrence. The researchers developed a way to determine the “temperament” of cancer cells. Their mathematical model combines all key parameters into a single coefficient, producing a comprehensive measure of cellular aggressiveness.

A Surprising Discovery

The model allows scientists to analyze how a cell deforms under mechanical stress and calculate how much energy it irreversibly loses during that process. Researchers tested the model using experimental data on skin cancer cells and made an unexpected discovery.

The researchers described this behavior as the “energy signature” of metastatic cells. Their internal system works like a precise mechanism that consistently spends maximum energy on deformation. This stable and excessive energy consumption becomes a hidden marker of aggressiveness. Based on this discovery, the scientists introduced a new measurable indicator called the “frequency of dissipative processes.” In essence, it is a scoring metric that reflects cytoskeleton restructuring. A consistently high value indicates metastatic potential.

Avoiding Unnecessary Treatment

In the future, the model could form the basis of a diagnostic test. Doctors would analyze a tumor sample and determine the “energy signature” of its cells. If the value is consistently high, it would indicate that the tumor is likely to metastasize, allowing physicians to begin treatment earlier.

The model could also identify tumors with low metastatic potential that lack this dangerous signature. In such cases, patients could avoid toxic therapies that may not be necessary.

Ultimately, the discovery could support more personalized cancer treatment, helping doctors target the most dangerous threats earlier while protecting patients from unnecessary therapy.

Earlier we reported that Russian researchers are developing a digital “advisor” for oncologists capable of predicting whether advanced CAR-T therapy will help individual patients with lung, breast or brain cancer.