Russian Scientists Now Know Where to Drill
A new Russian methodology uses multi‑variant 3D geological modeling to minimize uncertainty and help oil and gas engineers pinpoint the most productive drilling zones
A Breakthrough for Complex Reservoirs
Researchers at Perm Polytechnic University have introduced a methodology that can generate dozens of three‑dimensional geological models and objectively identify those that most accurately reflect the real subsurface structure. With easily accessible oil fields largely depleted, engineers must increasingly work with difficult, isolated reservoirs where conventional surface‑based mapping provides limited insight.
Why Accuracy Matters
To reach deep and structurally complex reservoirs, companies rely on 3D geological twins to plan drilling and forecast extraction. Because no team can fully anticipate the variability of underground formations, multiple model versions must be created. But the lack of reliable selection tools often leads to costly mistakes: drilling a single well can cost several million dollars, and an incorrect reserve estimate can render an entire field unprofitable. The new methodology solves this by ranking models using objective, data‑driven criteria.
A New Composite Criterion
The researchers enhanced an existing modeling module used by oil companies by adding a multi‑layer evaluation system. Each model is checked against four parameters: layer‑thickness consistency between the model and real wells, agreement with historical geological data, alignment between modeled and actual production volumes, and realistic spatial distribution of rock types. These inputs feed an index called Okkol, which scores each model’s reliability from 0 to 1.
Proven in the Field
During testing on a Russian oil field, the team generated 289 digital models. The improved software automatically ranked them and identified a subset with the highest confidence levels. According to Denis Potekhin, Doctor of Engineering and associate professor at Perm Polytechnic, the patented method forms the basis for a full multi‑variant 3D geological modeling module now being discussed with a domestic industry partner. The shift is timely: for years, oil companies relied on foreign solutions, but import substitution efforts are accelerating demand for Russian technologies.
International Collaboration
The project was supported by the Perm Krai program “International Research Groups’’ and conducted jointly with Li Wang, a professor at the China University of Petroleum and an expert in borehole geophysics.
