Russian Scientists Develop Algorithm to Predict the Most Dangerous Earthquake Zones
Researchers from MIPT and Innopolis University have created an algorithm capable of identifying the most hazardous sections of tectonic faults before major earthquakes occur, a development that could reshape seismic risk assessment and construction planning.
The new SPAD algorithm analyzes weak underground tremors that are imperceptible to humans but constantly occur within Earth’s crust. Researchers say these microquakes point to areas where energy from a future major earthquake is building up. Previously, scientists could identify such zones only after a large-scale disaster had already taken place.
According to MIPT associate professor Alexey Ostapchuk, powerful earthquakes tend to originate in areas that appear calm for years or even decades. The research team showed that these regions experience clusters of weak tremors long before a major rupture occurs, and the new system gives scientists a way to detect those danger zones years in advance.
The algorithm operates fully automatically and does not require historical disaster data to function. Researchers tested the system using 35 years of seismic records from Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula, where SPAD successfully identified both historical and modern high-risk zones. The method was also applied successfully in the Kuril Islands, Japan, and along California’s San Andreas Fault.
