Nuclear engineers will be able to predict reactor failures even before assembly begins

Nuclear Industry

Experts at South Ural State University have created numerical methods capable of predicting how reactor components subjected to extreme temperatures and cyclic loading will deform and eventually fail.

The key advantage is that these predictions are made during design, enabling engineers to identify vulnerabilities before fabrication and avoid costly redesigns.

The models account for the gradual accumulation of plastic deformation caused by repeated start-up and shutdown cycles. Rather than diagnosing damage during operation, the method forecasts how the structure will behave throughout its entire service life.

From Design to Safety

The team emphasizes that their approach combines the precision of advanced mathematical modeling with moderate demands on computing resources. Calculations can be performed on standard computers, eliminating the need for supercomputers and reducing project costs.

“Any equipment exposed to extreme temperatures eventually warps, cracks, or breaks. Predicting this process used to be impossible. Professor Alexander Chernyavsky and his colleagues have created methods that finally allow us to forecast these failures — and they successfully validated the approach at a nuclear power plant.”

Saidjon Tavarov

PhD, from South Ural State University

The methods were validated using realistic examples, including the BN-600 sodium-cooled fast reactor at the Beloyarsk Nuclear Power Plant, where cyclic stresses and high sodium temperatures present significant design challenges. Results showed strong agreement between mathematical predictions and actual equipment behavior.

Preventing Equipment Failures

Practical implementation of this methodology enhances the reliability of critical components in nuclear power plants, gas turbines, metallurgical systems, and aerospace equipment. By understanding where and how a structure may fail, engineers can reinforce high‑stress zones, optimize materials, or adjust design configurations.

This reduces the risk of accidents and unplanned shutdowns at energy facilities. The technology also strengthens Russia’s independence from foreign design methods and consulting services, as the approach is developed entirely by domestic specialists and requires no foreign licensing.

Export Potential

Russia’s numerical methods for evaluating plastic deformation and structural life under high temperatures and cyclic loads have attracted interest within the global engineering community.

Countries developing nuclear power programs are particularly interested in such predictive tools and licensing opportunities. Software built on these methods could become part of Russia’s high‑tech export portfolio, expanding access for Rosatom and engineering companies to international markets.